They told me I was wasting my time. They said the sharks leave. They said the water gets too cold. They said I was "obsessing" and should "try a different hobby" and "for God's sake, Pete, it's 38 degrees outside."
I went anyway.
The Conventional Wisdom
Marine biologists will tell you that great white sharks migrate south as water temperatures drop. The seals—their primary food source—move to deeper waters. The hunting grounds shift. By November, they say, the sharks are gone.
But here's my question: has anyone checked? Has anyone actually committed to consistent off-season observation to verify this supposed migration? Or are we simply accepting the narrative because it's convenient?
I am not a man who accepts narratives.
The Off-Season Expeditions
Between November 1st and January 15th, I conducted 19 full-day shark observation sessions. Here is what I learned.
Weather: The conventional wisdom about winter shark watching being "unpleasant" is accurate. I experienced wind chills ranging from 12 to 45 degrees. I wore seven layers on the coldest day. My thermos froze. Margaret refused to make sandwiches after the first week, so I subsisted on protein bars and spite.
Equipment: The drone becomes unreliable below 40 degrees. The batteries drain faster. The propellers get stiff. I lost one to the ocean on December 7th—a moment of silence, please. The replacement arrives next week.
Wildlife: The seal population remains surprisingly robust through December. I documented at least three distinct pods within my observation zones. Notably—and this is significant—I did NOT see Reginald during any off-season expedition. Not once. He appears to have migrated with the summer crowd. Suspicious.
Shark Sightings: A Report
Total confirmed shark sightings during 19 expeditions: zero.
Total possible shark sightings: three.
Let me explain. On November 12th, I observed a dorsal fin approximately 300 yards offshore. It was present for approximately four seconds before submerging. The shape was consistent with a shark rather than a dolphin or seal. However, I was unable to confirm before it disappeared.
On December 3rd, I noted unusual splashing in the impact zone—the kind of disturbance that could indicate predatory activity. No visual confirmation, but the pattern was suggestive.
On January 8th, I found what appeared to be a seal carcass with bite marks consistent with shark predation. I photographed it extensively. Margaret said it "could be from anything" and asked me to please stop showing her photos of dead seals.
The Theory
Here is what I believe: the sharks don't leave entirely. They change behavior. They hunt deeper, less frequently, and in different locations. They're still here—some of them—but they've adapted to winter conditions.
The scientists focus on tagged sharks, on the big populations, on the predictable migrations. But sharks are individuals. Some follow the patterns. Some don't. And those outliers—those stubborn, cold-tolerant, rebellious sharks—are exactly what I'm looking for.
One day, I will find one.
The Reginald Question
I mentioned that I did not see Reginald during off-season. This requires analysis.
Option 1: Reginald has migrated, as seals do, to warmer waters or better feeding grounds.
Option 2: Reginald knows I'm out there and is deliberately avoiding me because winter watching doesn't fit his schedule of harassment.
Option 3: Reginald only appears when sharks are potentially present, which would suggest he IS somehow connected to shark activity, which would make my "he's working with the sharks" theory more plausible, which would—
Margaret has asked me to stop talking about Reginald. I am including this for completeness.
Lessons for Winter Watchers
If you, too, wish to pursue off-season shark observation, here is my advice:
- Dress in layers. Then add two more layers.
- Bring multiple thermoses. One will fail.
- Accept that your phone will die quickly in the cold.
- Tell someone where you're going, because the beaches are empty and help is far.
- Lower your expectations but not your vigilance.
Looking Ahead
Spring is coming. The water will warm. The seals will return. And, if the patterns hold, so will Reginald.
But somewhere out there, I'm now convinced, a winter shark is swimming. I didn't find it this year. But I know it exists. And that knowledge will sustain me until summer.
Next season for sure.
Shark Sighting to Report?
Braved the winter waters and spotted something with fins? Your cold-weather reconnaissance could prove the skeptics wrong. Pete reviews all intel personally.
Write to pete@ackguide.com